It had to happen.
The 2009 Worlds could not be run without a preemptive form guide.
Last years effort ended up being well out of whack. But then I predicted a light wind event and we had 5 days cancelled with excessive wind. I chose Bora for the win and he didn’t appreciate it, helicoptering it out of that dreary, cold and miserable place before the last race to finish 20th.
My form guide for the 2008/09 Australian Nationals was similarly poor, with top pick and European Champion Arnaud stumbling across the line in 11th.
Perhaps my predictive powers are slipping along with my sailing ability. Or maybe the guide does it’s job admirably. I guess it depends on your perspective.
But my errors in the past will not stop me from making the same errors again. So here goes.
The 2009 Worlds will mark the re-emergence(?) of the US fleet in World Moth terms. For a very long time Australia and the UK have dominated on the World stage, but on home waters and with a talent-heavy fleet, the US have their best chance of success.
2009 also sees the debut of the Mach2. The evolutionary design has been picking up solid results in the 6 months since it’s launch and there may well be a lot of them contesting the event. Will they prove to be faster? And will that and their numbers be an issue for sailors trying to top the field in alternate designs? I’ve heard it said that some pity the poor sailors who are going to compete in something else.
2009 also marks the return of multiple World Champion and ‘Lord of the Wings’ Rohan Veal. His exploits have inspired a legion of sailors to take on the challenge, and his return to glory would be an impressive achievement. It is only two short years since his 8 straight wins from 10 races in Garda, but those years have been full.
2009 also could prove a turning point for the ‘traditional’ Moth sailors. Moth Championships have mostly been won by Moth-only sailors, but with an influx of Olympians, America’s Cup sailors and professionals things may change.
My picks for the top 10:
1st – Nathan Outteridge
Nathan picked up the Australian Championships against a competitive field in a banged up boat with only a handful of hours on the water. The once-in-a-generation sailor should’ve-could’ve-didn’t win gold in Qindao, but has such a relentless attitude that no compromise will be taken when it comes to winning. Perhaps his equipment may not be as fast as everything else out there, but he tends to sail it at close to potential almost all the time, and pushes peak speeds that most people only read about on the Internet. I think he’s fast enough to do it, smart enough and easily talented enough. When it counts at the end of the regatta he will be close enough on points to make it happen. His VRX should be solid, and he has a choice of whatever sails and spars North & CST Composites can throw at him.
2nd – Arnaud Psarofaghis
Arnaud came from nowhere to take 4th in 2008. He will push his boat faster than most and will have learnt from his experience in Australia over summer. I think in a Mach2 he will be faster again, and after his poor result in Australia the pressure should be off (provided he doesn’t win the Europeans starting tomorrow).
3rd – Simon Payne
The 2006 World Champion was the local hope for the title last year, but ended up being outgunned in 25 knots to finish 8th. Simon then won a stack of races in Australia in a week old boat, and has since had plenty of time to get to know how his new boat works. He’ll have the experience, the skills and he’s been there before.
4th – Rohan Veal
It would be dangerous to discount Rohan. He has dominated almost all the events he has raced. His boathandling is stunning despite spending most of the last two years in the self-imposed Mothosphere-wilderness. If it’s windy Rohan’s skills will pull him to the front, and he’s undergoing an intensive training and development program to close the gaps and overtake the opposition.
5th – Bora Gulari
The local hope has taken on Mothing with a vigour and intensity not seen before. He has always been quick, his boathandling is great, he has plenty of racing experience and he is aggressively developing faster equipment. I think he can go all the way, but the pressure of dealing with an armory of boats, foils, sails and masts along with the hopes and dreams of the nation may do more harm than good.
6th – Andrew McDougall
It would be foolish to underestimate McDougall for this Championship. He has arguably been the quickest for several years, and seems to have spent more time analysing and designing foils, sails and control systems than everyone else combined. In impeccable shape, Amac will undoubtably be fast again and will be constantly causing headaches for the young pretenders for the title. I underestimated him last year, and putting him in 6th is probably making the same mistake again.
7th – Charlie McKee
Another that it would be unwise to underestimate. McKee has been around the blocks for a while. His regatta experience in top-flight racing is extensive to say the least. Whilst on first looks he might be discounted, McKee will be at the top enough of the time to make it all come together at the end of the week. How many Olypmic medals does it take to be competitive in the Moth class these days?
8th – Kevin Hall
If it blows, we’re all in trouble.
9th – Dalton Bergan
He’s just jumped into the class coming off a fair amount of 49er sailing. I’m sure the results in a new boat in Cascade Locks earlier this month were only a sign of things to come.
10th – Rob Gough
Rob’s been quietly working away in Hobart and should be there when the big names fall over. He could be the Alex Knight of the Championships, just not that quiet.
So it’s a star-studded top 10. There’s plenty of big names that didn’t make the cut, as there will be come August 16.
I think Australia, with it’s team of Nathan, Rohan, Andrew, Rob, Will and myself should do well against the Brits in our defense of the ashes trophy. We might as well engrave it already.
What do you think?
