Box full of 29ers
As I’ve mentioned several times before, there is a good team of
Australian 29ers heading over to San Francisco for the Worlds this
year. The container was packed today, so the boats that are
definitely going are:
- David O’Connor
- Jamie Woods & Iain Jensen
- Byron & Mitchell White
- James & Charles Dorron
- John Winning & Tom Anderson
- Matt Perini & Stuart Pollard
- Will Critharis & Seve Jarvin
- Jacqui Bonnitcha & Euan McNicol
- Hannah Nattrass & Tom Woods
I’m always loathe to make predictions on where people will finish
in any event. But here are some ideas:
Jacqui & Euan will be an easy top 10, and a pretty easy top 3.
They’ve got the weight in the right place, while still being one of
the lightest teams going. Jacqui was the only girl to qualify for
Gold Fleet at the 2002 Sydney Worlds, finishing 11th. Euan is the
current 18′ Skiff World Champion skipper, as well as 2002 29er
World Champion. In a straight line they will be the fastest, wether
they can get off the start line and turn the corners… we don’t
know. Without seeing them on the water - I think they’ve got what
it takes to win.
Will & Seve are quick, very quick for a team that has never
done a regatta together. Seve is also the current 18′ Skiff World
Champion sheet-hand. Their weight is also very good, and with Seve
being a match racing rock-star they have plenty of smarts. Again
they’re unproven, but they’ll be a top 10. I don’t think they can
win.
Dave & I. We’ve sailed together 4 times since the Worlds in
Silvaplana. San Francisco is “supposed” to be completely different
conditions to Switzerland, but who knows. Starts, speed &
tactics shouldn’t be a problem. We’re probably a little light on
the wire if it blows like snot, but then we’re another 3 or 4 on
last time, and we weren’t that slow before. Who knows where we’ll
finish. It should be gold fleet, it should be top 10, it should be
top 5. There will be a lot of quick boats, who knows.
Jamie & Iain are quick in the blow. They’re one of the heaviest
teams, but have got their light air act together lately. Iain is
the current ISAF World Youth Champion, and they put up a good fight
for a while at the Australian Nationals. They’re quick, though the
wheels have fallen off on several occasions. Truthfully, I don’t
think they’ve got what it takes to win - they could beat us for
sure, but winning a Worlds without winning a leadup regatta is a
bit unprecedented.
So they’re the boats that are very very quick - at least as capable
as us in 2004.
James & Charles will be fast in a straight line in a breeze.
James is the Australian F11 Champion, and Charles is a bison enough
to keep the boat down. They haven’t done a big regatta, so they
wont win. I’d say mid-gold fleet.
John & Tom. John won the Worlds in 2002 with Euan on the wire.
Tom is green. John had 90kgs on the wire in Silvaplana, but still
managed an 8th, this time he has 69kg on the wire - and it should
blow. They’ll be a gold if they’re lucky, if not, St Francis should
make a killing at the bar.
Hannah & Tom have lots of weight on the wire, but they both
don’t have enough time in the boat. If they don’t swin they’ll be
ok, but from all reports there will be lots of swimming going on.
I’d say 10-15th in Silver.
Byron & Mitch, no idea. They’re very light.
Matt & Stuart, more lightweights. They’ve been capsizing in
light airs, so I don’t have that much confidence in their handling
in San Fran. Their coach might have whipped them into shape -
maybe.
So that’s it. It’s not as strong as the 60 boat fleet we fielded at
the Sydney Worlds, where we took 16 of the 25 gold fleet places.
There are still 4 boats that could easily take top 10 places.
But then there’s still Lauri - current World #2. I have no idea how
his crew will be, but Lauri is sure to get off the start line
well.
Tris & Alain - current World Champions will of course be
fast.
The rest of the British squad - Ed & Tom, Justin & Simon,
James & Tom, Dylan & Nick. They will all be fast, and
they’re all going there wanting to win. None of them have shown
dominance like Tris & Alain. I’d put Ed & Tom and Justin
& Simon in the top 10.
What about Helle & Simon from Denmark. Garda EuroCup winners
who on-paper should be a good combination. The top 10 is a bit too
crowded already.
Then the Argentinean, Pepe teaming up with Swiss 49er sailor
Caspar. They have some good form on paper, with Pepe getting a 2nd
and 4th in the last two Worlds. I think Pepe will get too wound up
fighting the Brits to focus on winning, sure he could be top
10.
Silja & Silja from Finland should be quick, they got 7th last
time and Silja won the Australian Nationals, but I don’t think the
San Fran conditions will be kind to them.
I can’t see any other mainland Europeans up there.
Then we come to the Americans. They’re sure to talk it up - but
that’s not unexpected. They were ok in Silvaplana, but not
brilliant. They’ll have a home-town advantage which will surely
help. Alex & Ted are back - so they’ll be heavy and probably
quick in a blow. Pegasus might field some 49er sailors just to get
their name up there. Marcus & Johny and John & Matt should
also be quick…
So after all that, who am I saying will be top 10…
Jaqcui & Euan, Tris & Alain, Lauri & Sean, Will &
Seve, Dave & I, Jamie & Iain, Ed & Tom, Justin &
Simon, Pepe & Caspar, ?
It’s always dangerous to make predictions this early… meh… i
don’t mind being wrong.
