scott.projectsomewhere

Back in June last year, the UK Moth site posted a preview of the 2006 Worlds.

Now their comments back then were pretty accurate, but it’s not very hard to accurately predict winners in the Moth fleet. In typical British fashion everything was very polite and civilized, and the odds were way way too low for all but the top 3.

Anyway, 2007 is another year and with a month to go it’s time to throw my take on the coming Worlds out there for criticism.

Who’s who at the pointy end of the fleet?

Adam May (UK) - World #3. AC coach, former Olympian, new boat in development. I think he’ll be very very quick, but is probably suffering from a lack of match practice given his Valencia commitments, and his unproven new ideas. You never know, he may have found something new.

Sam Pascoe (UK) - UK National Champion, new M3 with quick polyhedral foils apparently. Heavy weight will make him one of the quickest out of the blocks. I think he’ll suffer a bit on one of the invariably light days. It will be interesting to see what his time at Full Force brings out in terms of new ideas.

Jason Belben (UK) - Simon Payne’s training partner. Same Prowler4 kit. Will be quick no doubt. Waiting in the wings for someone else to make a mistake.

Luka Damic (AUS) - Australian #2. Very fast downwind. Heavy. He’ll enjoy the Garda conditions and will catch up a lot downwind, but the fitness may grind him down by the end of the event.

Mark Robinson (SIN) - Been around for a long time, but always just a touch off the pace. The smokes aren’t going to help the aerobic fitness at Day 6 in 20+ knots.

Paul Brotherton (UK) - Not coming apparently. Would be fast no doubt.

Les Thorpe (AUS) - Fast when foiling. One of the fittest around. He’ll be there waiting for the Euros to crash and burn when it blows.

Andrew McDougall (AUS) - Has the Bladerider arsenal at his disposal - along with lots and lots and lots of experience. He’ll have on-water coach support and will be at the venue for a couple of weeks prior to the event. Fit as hell for his age.

John Ilett (AUS) - Amac’s nemesis with the Fastacraft smarts. He’ll be there but I don’t think he’ll be battling it out for the win. Maybe there will be a grudge match to settle.

Alex Adams (UK) - Sam’s training partner in the Mistress camp. Fast improving.

Graham Vials (UK) - The Bladerider’s UK connection. Unproven against the fleet over there, and busy with university, stag nights etc etc. No doubt a great sailor, but preparation may not have been great.

Linton Jenkins (UK) - Amac and John’s rival for the manufacturer’s trophy. A 3-way fight for the title.

John Harris (AUS) - A Moth newbie with plenty of 18 footer experience. Being a newb won’t help, and there’s not much time left now.

Me (AUS) - First Moth Worlds. Recent regatta performances have been disappointing and I will struggle given the short preparation after another year long hiatus from the class. I’ve lived in Garda for half a year, so hopefully I can pick which way to go. Unfortunately I can count the heavy-air Moth experiences on one hand - which does not bode well given Garda’s reputation. I hope my gear will make it to the end of the regatta without too much alphabet for the scorecard. I’m rapidly acquiring equipment for Africa, but testing time is running out very very quickly.

So there you go. The top 10 is almost full…

But in all reality, the championship is going to be fought out between 2006 World Champion Simon Payne (UK), and 2005 World Champion Rohan Veal (AUS). Really, nobody else has a snowball’s chance in hell of being at the top at the end of the regatta - if you think otherwise it’s time to pull your head out of your arse.

The 2006 rematch is going to be a far cry from the tame encounter that was Horsens. This time Rohan is not using the same (albeit heavily stickered) Prowler 4 that both Simon and he raced. Simon continues in his 2006 winning boat, but Rohan is taking on the event with the hopes and aspirations of Bladerider International on his shoulders.

So the gap in equipment between these two is now wide.

Rohan’s Bladerider has shown itself to be blazingly quick upwind and easy and early to foil.

But there are a few problems with this picture. The usual Garda conditions are well above the low takeoff speed for the Bladerider, and it’s pretty straightforward that top-end speed is traded off for early takeoff. Perhaps that’s why the top speed debate is silent compared to last year.

While the Bladerider is fast upwind, Luka’s Prowler has shown itself over the last few months to be substantially quicker downwind. Rohan has still dominated in Australia, but against Simon, with a downwind finish, on what’s rumoured to be windward-leeward courses - things aren’t so clear cut.

So the base platform is still an open question, and despite almost total KA domination in recent years, the sail development is opening up as well.

In normal Garda conditions, the benefit of all those grandfathered oversize MSL9s may be neutered somewhat. That said, I won’t be the first to have a go at anyone who pulls a 3 year old MSL9 out for one of those VMG runs in what’s sure to be a light-wind race or two. Spineless facking cheats.

Anyway, despite the foil gurus all hoarding their 9s, there’s been a fair amount of rig development going on of late over the pond. KA have changed their colour scheme for the MSL12 while Simon has been trialling a new P&B rig with good results and Paul & Hyde have been getting good press on their latest rig moves.

KA is not taking that challenge lying down. With an armory of MSL9s, MSL12s and MSL12Hs being shipped to the event.

So now there may be big variations between Simon and Rohan in terms of foils, boats and sails.

Which one will be better? Who has a bigger lead time? Better training partners? Smarter designers? Which strengths will be more valuable? Early takeoff? Downwind speed? Upwind pointing? Heavy air handling?

Who am I picking?

I’m tipping Rohan.

I think he will dominate in over 18 knots and will get to the top mark with a substantial lead. Simon will be quicker downhill but I don’t think it will be enough.

But then again I’m sponsored by Bladerider, so I may be a bit biased.

worlds 2006 preview

looking back on our euros 2005 preview, we got the form of the top five remarkably correct. if anything our predictions were a little conservative, not fully recognising the changing performances taking place. so this year we’ve stuck our neck out just a bit further. don’t bet your shirt on it…

if we left you out. sorry no offence intended. prove us wrong and get in the top ten!

foil grand-masters

ok, we predict the 2006 world champion will be one of our six foil grand-masters. but which one? all six will be in horsens a week before racing starts psyching each other out.

si payne: prowler 4 - 3:2 favourite

si, european champion, starts as our favourite. his closest competitor at garda was adam may who was just a whisker behind. si’s preparation this season has been perfect sailing out of hayling island he will be fit and sharp and the new boat fully tuned. The Prowler 4 is basically the same boat Si used to win the Europeans. Rear wingbars are moved fwd a fraction, saving a little weight and windage. The biggest difference this year is the latest generation fastacraft foils. Elliptical planform for less induced drag. Reports from all who’ve sailed with them are very promising.

adam may: mistress 2 - 2:1

had it not been for adam’s involvement in the america’s cup in valencia we would have rated him evens with si. but he may be a touch short of race practice. His Mistress 2 is the same boat he used in the Europens. It always takes a while to unlock the potential of a new boat, and Adam seems confident in using the Mistress 2 he built for last years Euros. It is light, small, and pretty similar in shape to the new M3. Many of the features on the M2 have actually appeared on the new designs this year. Adam says it was a rush to finish the boat for the Nationals and Euros last year, so a variety of small refinements were undertaken over the Winter.

rohan veal: prowler 4 - 3:1

rohan is reigning world champion from melbourne in january ‘05. the distances between sailors in australia has left rohan relatively short of competitors to train with. if it’s windy he’ll have his best shot.

sam Pascoe: mistress 3 - 3:1

the most improved UK sailor. sam and his training partner alex have put in the hours all winter at weymouth and it shows. could upset the old order in his new mistress. The M3 is the Full Force production version of the M2. With full length chines and a central wand system. It features smaller foils in area and aggressively elliptical in planform, it will be interesting to see how they perform against the bigger fastacraft foils. Will they have less drag at speed or lift out later?

jason belben: mistress 1 - 3:1

highly experienced mothy and sail racer now totally at home in his foiler. fifth at garda, jason beat sam at the weymouth open this season and is clearly fired up to squeeze the most out of a boat he knows well. He’s focused on getting 100% out of the old boat rather than tuning up a new one. The Mistress 1 hull shape is more suited to the low speed stuff, but his performance may ultimately be determined by the foils beneath.

mark robinson: prowler 4 - 3:1

fourth at garda, mark is one of the original class of ‘04 foilers so now highly experienced and onto his third boat. we don’t know how much practice he has been getting in singapore but it’s possible this year will be his chance to claim the top southern hemisphere slot - and maybe the big one.

foilmasters

these guys are quick and all capable of taking a race and getting involved in the action.

ian forsdike: hungry tiger/fullforce - 5:1

ian’s a multiple moth UK champion and achieved top ten at garda when very new to foils. he’s put in the hours over the winter and is much quicker this season. watch him if it’s marginal foiling, ian’s quick in both modes.

alex adams: mistress 3??? - 5:1

alex has trained all winter with sam and progressed leaps and bounds (sometimes literally). expect to see him at the sharp end for periods at least.

sven kloppenburg: hungry tiger/fastacraft? - 5:1

sven’s a proven mothy and made a great foil debut with a seventh at garda. one year on, if he’s been practicing he’ll be the quickest man in a dry suit.

patrick ruff: prowler 4? - 5:1

another seasoned mothy and ex european champion in his first season foiling. difficult to rate since we don’t know how long he has had his foiler.

john ilett: prowler 4 - 5:1

we have never actually seen john sail but assume he’s pretty hot. his results at the 05 worlds were inconsistent but if his best second place reflects his potential our odds could look very long.

linton jenkins: mistress 3 - 5:1

easy to forget that last season was linton’s first in moths never mind foilers. he’s an experienced and proven dinghy racer and presumably gets to sail from time to time. probably at his quickest in marginal foiling winds.

andrew macdougal: bladerider - 5:1

like john we have little to go on in terms of past results. he’ll be keen to prove the new bladerider design and presumably trying all out for a good series. hard to rate.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 29th, 2007 at 12:18 pm and is filed under Moth, Sailing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.