The more things change, the more they stay the same
I just had a quick read through my form guide for last year’s JJ Giltinan. It wasn’t too hard to put together, and wasn’t too wide of the mark.
I think this year is going to be even easier to predict. The same contenders are back again, and in a lot of ways, the rich have got richer. There are no known unknowns.
So here we go again, who’s on form for the 2008 Giltinan:
Gotta Love It 7. The spooners have all the aces this year. They were quick last year but managed to hit everyone and hit the piss enough to avoid winning. This year is different. They’ve ironed out the low points and have won both the NSW States and Australian Championships without having to sail the last race. They lead the never-ending Club Championship by a mile even after carrying Sunday’s DNF. They’ll have their coach boat on the water to help them out if they need to tow any old 18s out of the way, or pull them to windward of the finish line after they’ve broken their rig. They’ll be unlucky not to smash everyone this year…. but then again they’ve hit us the last 3 races and we haven’t done anything about it… nobody is going to let that go next week.
Fiat. Cocko, Linksy & Nath. Reigning champions (twice). Fiat has been the test bed of some weird and wonderful rig ideas this season, and despite plugging away with consistent results haven’t really being able to dent the 7 machine. In the end it seems 7 have decided to forego joint training sessions to ’save themselves’ for the event - or more likely - to make sure Fiat doesn’t catch up. No doubt Cocko and the guys will be waiting in the wings ready to capitalize on the first mistake, but then I doubt their favoured top-end big-rig NE conditions will play out for the event like they did last year. If anything, this one is going to be light and shite.
Macquarie. Micah, Jack & Drew. They’re always there, but not quite. Also the recipient from some of Euan’s rig development, they’ve come out with something everyone else seems to think looks crap - but they still go quick. Who knows how that works. They’re much lighter than the rest, so they’ll be looking for some dodgey breeze so they can play that to their advantage. I think they can win races, but can they pull off the series?
Asko. Hugh, Paul & Niall. Perennial place-getters at this event (not quite last year though). Hugh has said this will be his last year in the 18s, but we’ve all heard that before. Asko has been hitting it’s straps at the right time this season with a 1, 2 in the last 2 races. They’re quick, high and smart. Their new big-Ullman mains are going well. They’ve got a new centreboard out of the new mould which seems to be going well for them. They love the light and shifty stuff. They could take it out if 7 fumbles.
Rag. John, me & Pete. We’ve won a race - finally. We’ve been plugging away all season, starting the regattas well but dropping the ball in the middle races. We need to get off the startline well and we could be in the top couple. More likely than not we’ll just keeping banking reasonable scores, minimize losses and wait for an opportunity. The points in this regatta are always close, so at the end we might just be there.
Club Marine. Beasho, Cam & Hebbo. Our resident AC tactical guru has a knack of being on the right side of the shifts, which is hardly suprising really. They’ve got the biggest set of sails for both #1 and #2 rigs. Add that up and in a light and shifty easterly they could be dangerous. They haven’t quite nailed a regatta, but they’ll be there. It’s not as if they’re lacking talent.
I think that’s going to be the top 6. But then I’m always fundamentally biased in my assessment of where things are at.
But who else is there?
Howie. He’s got the old team together, and will be a rocket ship with his now thoroughly old and undersized rigs - if it blows top-end conditions. He wasn’t slow by any means in yesterday’s brief line up. But then they’re not light, and a couple of big scores in some dodgey breeze could hobble their campaign.
Smeg. Chesty Bond, Dan & Jimmy. They’ve been battling it out with us for the last couple of races. They’re by no means slow. They’ve got enough grunt. They’ve got enough experience. They’ll be top 10 for sure. If things go their way they’ll be right up there.
Woody. Always there. No training sessions this year. They’ll be fighting for places every race, but then it’s a tight field.
The Kiwis on C-Tech. They’re always quick in a blow, and will again be fighting for position. But like I said, it’s a tight fleet and the Sydney 18s do have a couple of advantages when it comes to racing on Sydney Harbour.
What about the surprise packages?
Rollo, Jack & Jasper on SLAM. All the way from Western Australia. The new boat is going on the water for the first time on Tuesday. They’ll be toughing it out getting it all sorted, so they might be there come race 4 or 5. Rollo will be dangerous - literally - as usual.
Herman? Making a late entrance on the Keith Piggin. He will be dangerous on the course, and really has nothing to lose.
Pure Blonde - sure to nail some pin-end starts and good places.
Active Air - fast, but too many mistakes.
There’s plenty more boats competiting, but what else can I say. I think the top 6 boats are putting in more money and more time than anyone, and they started at the front of the fleet anyway. I think come the end of the event, and barring a disaster (or some poor rig selection), they’ll be the top 6 on Sunday week.
So there you go…. after last year’s debacle of a prediction this will probaby be a bit off the pace as well.
Oh… and hello Toby and the guys at thedailysail.com. If you want to borrow my content this year, just email me and ask.
