The Form
Wednesday, December 24th, 2008I wasn’t going to do it. Really.
But Marty goaded me into it and the comment from Clean that “that even Rohan admits that you are probably the fastest moth sailor in the world” was just enough to get it started.
There will be other opinions before the main event, but I’ll weigh in early. Like I said in an earlier post, this Australian Championship is going to be tough.
So here goes.
I think the event is going to be windy. Windy but relatively flat water. That means the heavy guys are going to be at the front of the fleet. Given that there’s not all that much racing each day, fitness is not going to be such a huge issue. We’re going for windward-leeward courses, so I think the downwind will be where it is won. There wont be a huge number of shifts upwind, so it will be an all out speed, hit the corners affair. Minimum tacks, minimum gybes, maximum speed everywhere.
The top 10 this year is going to be like this:
1. Arnaud (Bladerider X8). With less than 6 months in the boat he showed us all how to sail in Weymouth. It’s unlikely he is going slower now. I think he will crush everyone downwind.
2. Amac (Mach2). The Mach2 is an unknown quantity, but I’d be very surprised if it is slow. I think Amac will win half the races, but will fly close enough to the limit to come unstuck a couple of times.
3. John (Bladerider VRX). The World Champ will launch his new VRX next week, and will have it tuned up better than the boat he used in SIRS. He’ll just be consistently in the top 3.
4. Bora (Bladerider X8). Will win a lot of races. His setup and trim is a lot different to most of the fleet, but it works. He’s arguably the fastest moth sailor in the World, but might forget the course from time to time.
5. Me (Prowler Zero). 5th place again. Managing expectations.
6. Nathan (Bladerider X8). He’ll be fast in a straight line, and will improve very, very quickly through the regatta. He’s always in the right place at the right time, he knows how to sail and has won a few things in the past.
7. Dave (Gilmour Alpha). Extremely quick. He will win a bunch of races too, but will get enough alphabet to stay out of the 5 at the end of the event.
8. Simon (Mach2). Will obviously be quick in the Mach2. If we get enough light wind in the morning he will score a bunch of wins. But I think the fuller-figured Moth sailors will get the better of him in the afternoon sea breeze.
9. Andrew (Bladerider X8). The kiwi will always be in the top bunch.
10. Luka (Prowler Zero). Will be undoubtably quick and will have plenty of time to wind up the speed over a long course. Like Dave I think consistency will get the better of him.
After reading through that list again, it’s going to be pretty tight. I think even 5th might be a tad optimistic.
Other contenders I haven’t got to are Rob, who sails bloody well. Lochlin Bryne who just seems to go faster all the time. Les who will have Ben’s top-speed-making Prowler Zero. Then Martin the Swede who was very quick in Weymouth. Sam England who showed a lot of people up at the Worlds, and James Owen-Smith who also goes extremely fast. Then there’s Andrew who is going quicker all the time in his Prowler. Alan who will be fast in the light stuff in his new Prowler Zero. Matt who will be way out in front when it goes really soft. Sten-Mark is he’s coming.
And there’s probably more I haven’t thought of yet.
Consistency will be the key come the end of the week, there are enough fast lightweights to make the morning races a pain and there are enough fast heavyweights to make the afternoon races very hard.
So how close do you think I am? Only a few weeks to see if I can get my first 10/10 for a form guide.

